Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia

570 Ogledov
1243 Prenosov
Izvoz citacije: ABNT
LESKOVAR, Matjaž ;CIZELJ, Leon .
Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia. 
Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, [S.l.], v. 68, n.4, p. 213-224, february 2022. 
ISSN 0039-2480.
Available at: <https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/>. Date accessed: 12 aug. 2022. 
doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50.
Leskovar, M., & Cizelj, L.
(2022).
Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia.
Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 68(4), 213-224.
doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50
@article{sv-jmesv-jme.2022.50,
	author = {Matjaž  Leskovar and Leon  Cizelj},
	title = {Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia},
	journal = {Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering},
	volume = {68},
	number = {4},
	year = {2022},
	keywords = {Epidemic; COVID-19; Modelling; SEIR; Reproduction number; Public health interventions; },
	abstract = {The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.},
	issn = {0039-2480},	pages = {213-224},	doi = {10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50},
	url = {https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/}
}
Leskovar, M.,Cizelj, L.
2022 February 68. Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia. Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering. [Online] 68:4
%A Leskovar, Matjaž 
%A Cizelj, Leon 
%D 2022
%T Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia
%B 2022
%9 Epidemic; COVID-19; Modelling; SEIR; Reproduction number; Public health interventions; 
%! Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia
%K Epidemic; COVID-19; Modelling; SEIR; Reproduction number; Public health interventions; 
%X The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
%U https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/
%0 Journal Article
%R 10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50
%& 213
%P 12
%J Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering
%V 68
%N 4
%@ 0039-2480
%8 2022-02-21
%7 2022-02-21
Leskovar, Matjaž, & Leon  Cizelj.
"Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia." Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering [Online], 68.4 (2022): 213-224. Web.  12 Aug. 2022
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Leskovar, Matjaž 
AU  - Cizelj, Leon 
PY  - 2022
TI  - Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia
JF  - Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering
DO  - 10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50
KW  - Epidemic; COVID-19; Modelling; SEIR; Reproduction number; Public health interventions; 
N2  - The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
UR  - https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/
@article{{sv-jme}{sv-jme.2022.50},
	author = {Leskovar, M., Cizelj, L.},
	title = {Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia},
	journal = {Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering},
	volume = {68},
	number = {4},
	year = {2022},
	doi = {10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50},
	url = {https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Leskovar, Matjaž 
AU  - Cizelj, Leon 
PY  - 2022/02/21
TI  - Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia
JF  - Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering; Vol 68, No 4 (2022): Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering
DO  - 10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50
KW  - Epidemic, COVID-19, Modelling, SEIR, Reproduction number, Public health interventions, 
N2  - The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.
UR  - https://www.sv-jme.eu/sl/article/robust-and-intuitive-model-for-covid-19-epidemic-in-slovenia/
Leskovar, Matjaž, AND Cizelj, Leon.
"Robust and Intuitive Model for COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia" Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering [Online], Volume 68 Number 4 (21 February 2022)

Avtorji

Inštitucije

  • Jožef Stefan Institute, Slovenia 1

Informacije o papirju

Strojniški vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering 68(2022)4, 213-224
© The Authors 2022. CC BY 4.0 Int.

https://doi.org/10.5545/sv-jme.2022.50

The main goal of epidemic modelling is to support the epidemic management through forecasts and analyses of past developments. With this in mind a robust and intuitive SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) type model has been developed, applied and verified during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics in Slovenia since March 2020. The model parameters were based on the general characteristics of the COVID-19 disease reported globally for the entire planet and refined with the aggregate data available mostly on a daily basis in Slovenia, as for example the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized patients, hospitalized patients in intensive care units and deceased. The Slovenian aggregate data was also used to estimate the degree of immunisation due to past infections and vaccination, which reduces the number of susceptible persons for the disease. Examples of the model application are presented to illustrate its robustness and intuitiveness in both the forecasts and analyses of past developments. The analyses of past developments provided specific estimates of modelling parameters for Slovenia and quantified the effects of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions and various events on the development of the epidemics as measured through the reproduction number R. This empirically obtained information was then applied in the forecasts. Accurate forecasts are a great support for decision makers and for hospitals to plan appropriate actions in advance. The inherent uncertainties in the model and data were quantified through intuitive sensitivity analyses represented as different scenarios. The observed accuracy of the forecasts was impressively good also in demanding conditions, when various complex processes influencing the spread of the disease were going on in parallel. This demonstrates the robustness and relevance of the proposed model.

Epidemic; COVID-19; Modelling; SEIR; Reproduction number; Public health interventions;